Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Johnston 48.0% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 60.6%
Defensive zone
Sturm 82.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 82.1%
82.1%
17.9%
Sturm
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Sturm
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
47.3% (666)
+7.3%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
51.4% (35)
+3.0%
On even strength, Sturm has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Sturm
Johnston
Home
53.0% (168)
47.5% (364)
Away
56.0% (193)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Sturm
Johnston
P1
58.2%
49.4%
P2
53.2%
46.9%
P3
52.3%
47.1%
OT
100.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |