Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Johnston 49.0% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 78.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 95.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 90.3%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 88.0%
88.0%
12.0%
Sturm
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
5
(18 meetings)
13
5
Sturm
Johnston
Last 10: Sturm 6-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Johnston
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
6
2
Sturm
Johnston
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
0
Sturm
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
49.1% (2,232)
+8.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
52.5% (179)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
44.7% (237)
+6.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Johnston is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,999).
Home / Away
Sturm
Johnston
Home
57.1% (1,614)
49.2% (1,332)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
48.7% (1,316)
By Period
Sturm
Johnston
P1
56.5%
50.0%
P2
54.9%
48.1%
P3
57.4%
48.6%
OT
60.6%
51.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:50 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 14:49 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:22 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 10:06 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:01 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 5, 2024 | OT | 00:34 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 2 | 13:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 5, 2024 | 1 | 16:11 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 14:08 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 19:35 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 1 | 07:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |