Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Cates 45.5% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 80.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 74.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 54.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Roy
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Roy
Cates
Last 5: Roy 2-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Roy
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
1
0
Roy
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
45.5% (756)
+6.4%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
42.1% (114)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
44.7% (47)
+8.6%
On power play, Roy has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Roy
Cates
Home
54.0% (328)
46.2% (468)
Away
50.6% (348)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Roy
Cates
P1
53.5%
46.0%
P2
51.6%
47.5%
P3
51.6%
42.1%
Final 5 min
48.1%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Noah Cates |