Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 14 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Cates 43.2% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 58.3%
Defensive zone
Roy 71.3%
Neutral zone
Roy 61.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Roy
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
10
(23 meetings)
13
10
Roy
Cates
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
4
Roy
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Roy
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
10
4
Roy
Cates
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
44.1% (2,786)
+4.6%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
42.9% (254)
+6.6%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
34.9% (373)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Home / Away
Roy
Cates
Home
49.5% (2,221)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Roy
Cates
P1
50.8%
44.5%
P2
46.3%
43.7%
P3
48.1%
41.2%
OT
50.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
47.2%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 01:47 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 15:32 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:18 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 01:38 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 15:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |