Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 87.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 70.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 66.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 70.8%
70.8%
29.2%
Roy
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Roy
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
57.1% (368)
-5.2%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
55.2% (96)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
50.0% (10)
+3.3%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Roy shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Roy
Stamkos
Home
54.0% (328)
53.9% (230)
Away
50.6% (348)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Roy
Stamkos
P1
53.5%
56.7%
P2
51.6%
54.1%
P3
51.6%
59.2%
Final 5 min
48.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |