Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 53.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 88.2%
Neutral zone
Roy 73.3%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Roy
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
10
(15 meetings)
5
10
Roy
Stamkos
Last 10: Roy 3-7 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
7
Roy
Stamkos
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
3
2
Roy
Stamkos
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
50.5% (9,825)
-1.8%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
55.2% (1,729)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
49.6% (827)
-4.1%
On power play, Stamkos has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Roy shoots right. Stamkos is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (3,601).
Home / Away
Roy
Stamkos
Home
49.5% (2,221)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Roy
Stamkos
P1
50.8%
49.2%
P2
46.3%
52.7%
P3
48.1%
50.9%
OT
50.0%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:22 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:05 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 12:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 11:23 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 29, 2022 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2021 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2021 | 2 | 08:35 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 21, 2021 | 2 | 00:43 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |