Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +11.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Novak 42.5% (+11.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 89.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 54.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 74.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 81.9%
18.1%
81.9%
Roy
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Roy
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Roy
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Roy
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
40.4% (408)
+11.5%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
45.5% (33)
+8.6%
On even strength, Roy has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Roy
Novak
Home
54.0% (328)
42.0% (212)
Away
50.6% (348)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Roy
Novak
P1
53.5%
41.9%
P2
51.6%
39.3%
P3
51.6%
42.1%
Final 5 min
48.1%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |