Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 75.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 78.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 50.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Roy
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Roy
Novak
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
4
Roy
Novak
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
7
3
Roy
Novak
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Roy
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
41.8% (1,568)
+6.9%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
51.5% (134)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
50.0% (2)
-4.5%
On even strength, Roy has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Roy
Novak
Home
49.5% (2,221)
45.1% (831)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Roy
Novak
P1
50.8%
43.7%
P2
46.3%
42.8%
P3
48.1%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.2%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 12:42 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 7, 2025 | 2 | 09:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 08:05 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 2 | 13:51 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 05:08 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 02:06 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:07 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 4, 2023 | 1 | 11:23 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |