Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +19.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Zegras 37.0% (+19.3%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 9-1 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 62.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 97.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 91.6%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 94.6%
94.6%
5.4%
Roy
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
1
(10 meetings)
9
1
Roy
Zegras
Last 10: Roy 9-1 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
4
1
Roy
Zegras
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
5
0
Roy
Zegras
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
33.0% (264)
+18.9%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
32.1% (56)
+22.0%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
50.0% (2)
+3.3%
On power play, Roy has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Zegras is 33.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Roy
Zegras
Home
54.0% (328)
35.3% (173)
Away
50.6% (348)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Roy
Zegras
P1
53.5%
33.0%
P2
51.6%
35.7%
P3
51.6%
29.7%
Final 5 min
48.1%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 17:23 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:07 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:33 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 01:15 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 01:09 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |