Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Noah Cates
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs Cates 45.5% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 78.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 96.3%
Neutral zone
Pageau 93.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 93.0%
93.0%
7.0%
Pageau
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Pageau
Cates
Last 7: Pageau 6-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
0
Pageau
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
59.3% (715)
45.5% (756)
+13.8%
Power Play
68.3% (41)
42.1% (114)
+26.2%
Penalty Kill
59.7% (221)
44.7% (47)
+15.0%
On power play, Pageau has a +26.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Pageau shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Home / Away
Pageau
Cates
Home
58.1% (418)
46.2% (468)
Away
61.0% (559)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Pageau
Cates
P1
55.3%
46.0%
P2
61.5%
47.5%
P3
61.6%
42.1%
OT
75.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
63.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 05:07 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 04:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 01:14 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 02:30 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:12 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |