Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +15.9% FO% edge overall. Boqvist wins 30.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Boqvist 39.0% vs Cates 45.5% (-15.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 52.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 61.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 57.8%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Boqvist
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Boqvist
Cates
Last 6: Boqvist 3-3 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Boqvist
2
0
Boqvist
Cates
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Boqvist
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Boqvist
Cates
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Boqvist
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
30.7% (101)
45.5% (756)
-14.8%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
42.1% (114)
-22.1%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (4)
44.7% (47)
-44.7%
On penalty kill, Cates has a +44.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Boqvist is 30.8% vs left-shot opponents (65).
Boqvist shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Boqvist
Cates
Home
30.0% (60)
46.2% (468)
Away
28.0% (50)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Boqvist
Cates
P1
35.9%
46.0%
P2
27.5%
47.5%
P3
22.6%
42.1%
Final 5 min
33.3%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Boqvist
28.0%▼
35.5%
29.1%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 03:47 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Neutral | Jesper Boqvist |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 07:15 | Offensive | Jesper Boqvist |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Noah Cates |