Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.9% vs Cates 45.5% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 73.5%
Defensive zone
Norris 77.7%
Neutral zone
Norris 70.4%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Norris
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Norris
Cates
Last 5: Norris 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
3
1
Norris
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (388)
45.5% (756)
+5.0%
Power Play
47.6% (84)
42.1% (114)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.7% (47)
-1.8%
On power play, Norris has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Norris is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Norris shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Home / Away
Norris
Cates
Home
48.1% (233)
46.2% (468)
Away
51.6% (246)
43.9% (449)
By Period
Norris
Cates
P1
53.1%
46.0%
P2
49.2%
47.5%
P3
48.4%
42.1%
OT
0.0%
18.2%
Final 5 min
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
54.0%▲
51.0%
49.9%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 10:10 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 05:12 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 16:16 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 1 | 09:04 | Neutral | Josh Norris |