Scouting Report
Pontus Holmberg holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Holmberg shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Holmberg 46.0% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Holmberg 58.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 50.2%
Neutral zone
Holmberg 50.2%
Result
Pontus Holmberg favored at 51.6%
48.4%
51.6%
Cates
Holmberg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Cates
Holmberg
Last 5: Cates 2-3 Holmberg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Cates
Holmberg
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Holmberg
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Holmberg
0
1
Cates
Holmberg
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Holmberg
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
45.3% (676)
-1.2%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
50.0% (22)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
45.9% (61)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Holmberg has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Holmberg shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Holmberg is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (510).
Home / Away
Cates
Holmberg
Home
43.9% (1,708)
46.2% (422)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
44.5% (337)
By Period
Cates
Holmberg
P1
44.5%
53.1%
P2
43.7%
40.9%
P3
41.2%
42.3%
OT
29.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Holmberg
36.0%▼
45.5%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 11:42 | Offensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 3 | 10:08 | Neutral | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 10:02 | Defensive | Pontus Holmberg |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 05:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |