Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Thomas 51.9% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 71.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 75.1%
Neutral zone
Cates 73.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Cates
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Cates
Thomas
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Cates
Thomas
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
3
Cates
Thomas
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
0
1
Cates
Thomas
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
50.3% (652)
-4.8%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
61.5% (104)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
54.2% (120)
-9.5%
On power play, Thomas has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Cates
Thomas
Home
46.2% (468)
52.0% (400)
Away
43.9% (449)
52.3% (476)
By Period
Cates
Thomas
P1
46.0%
49.6%
P2
47.5%
55.4%
P3
42.1%
51.0%
OT
18.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.8%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |