Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thomas on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thomas shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Thomas 51.6% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Thomas leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 60.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 65.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Cates
Thomas
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
11
(19 meetings)
8
11
Cates
Thomas
Last 10: Cates 3-7 Thomas
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
3
6
Cates
Thomas
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
3
Cates
Thomas
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
2
Cates
Thomas
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Thomas
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
51.1% (5,387)
-7.0%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
55.8% (927)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
50.2% (697)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thomas shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Home / Away
Cates
Thomas
Home
43.9% (1,708)
50.9% (3,484)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
52.3% (3,527)
By Period
Cates
Thomas
P1
44.5%
50.7%
P2
43.7%
53.0%
P3
41.2%
50.8%
OT
29.4%
59.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 20, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 07:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:21 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 14:48 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:34 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:26 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:15 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 06:59 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 3 | 18:04 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 07:47 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |