Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Donato 47.1% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 54.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 51.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.7%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Cates
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Cates
Donato
Last 5: Cates 0-5 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Cates
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Cates
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Cates
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
46.8% (297)
-1.3%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
41.0% (39)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
100.0% (1)
-55.3%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +55.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Donato is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
Cates
Donato
Home
46.2% (468)
45.8% (142)
Away
43.9% (449)
46.7% (195)
By Period
Cates
Donato
P1
46.0%
49.5%
P2
47.5%
45.7%
P3
42.1%
43.4%
OT
18.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 16:09 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |