Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Donato 44.7% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Donato leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 65.8%
Defensive zone
Cates 74.8%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Cates
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Cates
Donato
Last 10: Cates 2-8 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
4
Cates
Donato
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Donato
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Cates
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
44.0% (1,218)
+0.1%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
46.0% (248)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
41.7% (12)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Donato is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (909).
Home / Away
Cates
Donato
Home
43.9% (1,708)
47.2% (743)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
41.4% (735)
By Period
Cates
Donato
P1
44.5%
43.8%
P2
43.7%
44.9%
P3
41.2%
43.7%
OT
29.4%
70.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2026 | 3 | 03:16 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 26, 2026 | 1 | 16:09 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:47 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:25 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:17 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:57 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |