Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs McLeod 47.4% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 59.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 70.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 51.3%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Cates
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Cates
McLeod
Last 9: Cates 5-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
2
Cates
McLeod
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Cates
McLeod
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
0
Cates
McLeod
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
49.0% (827)
-3.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
44.0% (91)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
43.0% (272)
+1.7%
On even strength, McLeod has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Cates
McLeod
Home
46.2% (468)
48.5% (619)
Away
43.9% (449)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Cates
McLeod
P1
46.0%
52.7%
P2
47.5%
43.9%
P3
42.1%
45.8%
OT
18.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
44.8%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |