Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs McLeod 49.5% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 76.9%
Defensive zone
McLeod 75.5%
Neutral zone
McLeod 68.2%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Cates
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Cates
McLeod
Last 10: Cates 6-4 McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
4
Cates
McLeod
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
3
Cates
McLeod
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
8
1
Cates
McLeod
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
50.4% (3,376)
-6.3%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
50.7% (296)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
44.1% (644)
-9.2%
On penalty kill, McLeod has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
Home / Away
Cates
McLeod
Home
43.9% (1,708)
50.0% (2,202)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
48.9% (2,114)
By Period
Cates
McLeod
P1
44.5%
50.8%
P2
43.7%
48.0%
P3
41.2%
50.0%
OT
29.4%
37.1%
Final 5 min
41.4%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2026 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 16:54 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 2 | 06:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:06 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:00 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Dec 3, 2025 | 2 | 01:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 13:30 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 19:45 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:01 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 16:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Feb 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |