Noah Cates vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 59.4%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 60.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.3%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 9: Cates 5-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
1
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
44.3% (271)
51.0% (408)
-6.7%
Power Play
77.8% (18)
0.0% (6)
+77.8%
Penalty Kill
31.7% (41)
35.9% (78)
-4.2%
On power play, Cates has a +77.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Cates shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (339).
Home / Away
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
52.0% (148)
50.8% (258)
Away
38.5% (182)
44.9% (234)
By Period
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
42.7%
51.6%
P2
42.9%
45.2%
P3
48.5%
47.6%
Final 5 min
44.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
56.0%▲
46.5%
44.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:23 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 07:05 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 03:54 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 11:28 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:23 | Neutral | Noah Cates |