Noah Cates vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% (-1.4%)
Offensive zone
Cates 50.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 54.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 52.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
46.0% (250)
-0.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
70.6% (17)
-28.5%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
31.8% (22)
+12.9%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +28.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
46.2% (468)
50.3% (175)
Away
43.9% (449)
40.4% (114)
By Period
Cates
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
46.0%
48.5%
P2
47.5%
45.9%
P3
42.1%
46.5%
OT
18.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%