Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-10.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 83.5%
Defensive zone
Cates 87.7%
Neutral zone
Cates 82.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Cates
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Cates
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cates 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Cates
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Cates
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Cates
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
55.7% (856)
-10.2%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
57.5% (233)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
50.0% (144)
-5.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Cates
O'Reilly
Home
46.2% (468)
55.5% (616)
Away
43.9% (449)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Cates
O'Reilly
P1
46.0%
58.1%
P2
47.5%
54.9%
P3
42.1%
53.9%
OT
18.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |