Noah Cates vs Ryan O'Reilly

2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Cates 45.5% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-10.4%)
H2H factor O'Reilly leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone Cates 83.5%
Defensive zone Cates 87.7%
Neutral zone Cates 82.2%
Result Noah Cates favored at 84.8%
84.8%
15.2%
Cates O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4 - 11 (15 meetings)
4
11
Cates O'Reilly
Last 10: Cates 1-9 O'Reilly

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
4
Cates O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Cates O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
4
Cates O'Reilly
4 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Cates
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
55.7% (856)
-10.2%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
57.5% (233)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
50.0% (144)
-5.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +15.4% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Cates
O'Reilly
Home
46.2% (468)
55.5% (616)
Away
43.9% (449)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Cates
O'Reilly
P1
46.0%
58.1%
P2
47.5%
54.9%
P3
42.1%
53.9%
OT
18.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
56.3%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%
45.5%
45.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%
55.0%
55.4%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Nov 6, 2025 3 00:51 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 6, 2025 1 19:35 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 6, 2025 1 11:28 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Nov 6, 2025 1 11:21 Defensive Noah Cates
Nov 6, 2025 1 04:06 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 3 11:03 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 3 07:00 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 3 00:00 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 2 13:05 Defensive Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 2 12:45 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 2 04:59 Defensive Noah Cates
Oct 30, 2025 2 04:14 Offensive Ryan O'Reilly
Oct 30, 2025 2 04:01 Offensive Noah Cates
Oct 30, 2025 1 11:54 Defensive Noah Cates
Oct 30, 2025 1 00:00 Neutral Ryan O'Reilly