Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-13.0%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 24-5 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 95.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 94.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 94.5%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 94.7%
94.7%
5.3%
Cates
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
24
(29 meetings)
5
24
Cates
O'Reilly
Last 10: Cates 1-9 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
12
Cates
O'Reilly
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
6
Cates
O'Reilly
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
6
Cates
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
56.2% (15,290)
-12.1%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
58.7% (3,457)
-15.8%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
51.4% (2,826)
-16.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Cates
O'Reilly
Home
43.9% (1,708)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Cates
O'Reilly
P1
44.5%
55.6%
P2
43.7%
57.0%
P3
41.2%
55.0%
OT
29.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
41.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 07:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 12:45 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 04:01 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 19:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 18:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 17:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |