Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Carrick 54.2% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 62.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 84.8%
Neutral zone
Carrick 65.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 67.2%
32.8%
67.2%
Cates
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Cates
Carrick
Last 7: Cates 4-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
2
Cates
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
3
1
Cates
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
55.5% (470)
-10.0%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
66.7% (3)
-24.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
50.0% (58)
-5.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +24.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Cates
Carrick
Home
46.2% (468)
58.6% (261)
Away
43.9% (449)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Cates
Carrick
P1
46.0%
55.9%
P2
47.5%
53.5%
P3
42.1%
55.6%
OT
18.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Noah Cates |