Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Carrick 52.2% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 62.7%
Defensive zone
Carrick 92.9%
Neutral zone
Carrick 82.0%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 78.8%
21.2%
78.8%
Cates
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
9
(22 meetings)
13
9
Cates
Carrick
Last 10: Cates 5-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
3
Cates
Carrick
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
4
Cates
Carrick
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
7
2
Cates
Carrick
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
52.2% (2,544)
-8.1%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
61.3% (75)
-18.4%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
50.8% (435)
-15.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Home / Away
Cates
Carrick
Home
43.9% (1,708)
51.5% (1,477)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Cates
Carrick
P1
44.5%
51.8%
P2
43.7%
52.3%
P3
41.2%
52.6%
OT
29.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.4%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:52 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:43 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 05:03 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 02:25 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:24 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:16 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 12:35 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2023 | 2 | 03:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:33 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |