Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Kuraly 51.0% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 74.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 78.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.8%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Cates
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Cates
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
52.6% (464)
-7.1%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
100.0% (1)
-57.9%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
46.5% (155)
-1.8%
On power play, Kuraly has a +57.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Cates
Kuraly
Home
46.2% (468)
55.9% (322)
Away
43.9% (449)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Cates
Kuraly
P1
46.0%
55.9%
P2
47.5%
46.7%
P3
42.1%
50.7%
OT
18.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
44.8%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 10:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |