Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Kuraly 50.4% (-7.4%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 14-8 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 86.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 74.9%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 78.2%
78.2%
21.8%
Cates
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
14
(22 meetings)
8
14
Cates
Kuraly
Last 10: Cates 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
5
4
Cates
Kuraly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
3
Cates
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
2
7
Cates
Kuraly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
51.6% (5,161)
-7.5%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
56.4% (101)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
44.4% (1,091)
-9.5%
On power play, Kuraly has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Kuraly is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (4,119).
Home / Away
Cates
Kuraly
Home
43.9% (1,708)
52.1% (3,205)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
48.8% (3,149)
By Period
Cates
Kuraly
P1
44.5%
51.2%
P2
43.7%
50.0%
P3
41.2%
50.2%
OT
29.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
41.4%
49.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 10:56 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 11:16 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:28 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:30 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:23 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 2 | 01:11 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 16:40 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 19, 2023 | 1 | 05:41 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:54 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 07:12 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:28 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:35 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 3 | 03:22 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |