Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Monahan 52.5% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 12-1 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 71.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 74.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 72.0%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Cates
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
12
(13 meetings)
1
12
Cates
Monahan
Last 10: Cates 1-9 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Cates
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
6
Cates
Monahan
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
4
Cates
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
53.0% (874)
-7.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
54.7% (161)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
47.5% (101)
-2.8%
On power play, Monahan has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Cates
Monahan
Home
46.2% (468)
53.8% (558)
Away
43.9% (449)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Cates
Monahan
P1
46.0%
49.5%
P2
47.5%
54.8%
P3
42.1%
52.8%
OT
18.2%
61.9%
Final 5 min
44.8%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:51 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 01:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |