Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Monahan 51.2% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 30-12 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 89.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 89.9%
Neutral zone
Cates 84.6%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 88.2%
88.2%
11.8%
Cates
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
30
(42 meetings)
12
30
Cates
Monahan
Last 10: Cates 1-9 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
10
Cates
Monahan
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
6
11
Cates
Monahan
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
9
Cates
Monahan
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
51.1% (11,407)
-7.0%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
53.6% (2,582)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
45.9% (772)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
Cates
Monahan
Home
43.9% (1,708)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Cates
Monahan
P1
44.5%
51.0%
P2
43.7%
51.7%
P3
41.2%
51.0%
OT
29.4%
53.5%
Final 5 min
41.4%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 15:51 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 02:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 01:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 01:25 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 01:41 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 02:33 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 10:35 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 1 | 08:12 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 3 | 10:34 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 18:04 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 14:17 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 07:21 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |