Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cates 59.3%
Defensive zone
Cates 64.0%
Neutral zone
Cates 61.2%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Cates
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Cates
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
1
0
Cates
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Cates
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
57.1% (368)
-11.6%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
55.2% (96)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
50.0% (10)
-5.3%
On power play, Stamkos has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Cates
Stamkos
Home
46.2% (468)
53.9% (230)
Away
43.9% (449)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Cates
Stamkos
P1
46.0%
56.7%
P2
47.5%
54.1%
P3
42.1%
59.2%
OT
18.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.8%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |