Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Cates wins 45.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 14-5 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Cates 89.9%
Defensive zone
Cates 88.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 86.4%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 87.1%
87.1%
12.9%
Cates
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
14
(19 meetings)
5
14
Cates
Stamkos
Last 10: Cates 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
2
0
Cates
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Stamkos
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
12
Cates
Stamkos
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
50.5% (9,825)
-6.4%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
55.2% (1,729)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
49.6% (827)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Cates is 45.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,103).
Cates shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Cates
Stamkos
Home
43.9% (1,708)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Cates
Stamkos
P1
44.5%
49.2%
P2
43.7%
52.7%
P3
41.2%
50.9%
OT
29.4%
54.3%
Final 5 min
41.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 07:56 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 14:21 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:18 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 05:02 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 1 | 05:52 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 15:06 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |