Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cates wins 43.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 93.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 75.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 87.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 93.6%
6.4%
93.6%
Cates
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Cates
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Cates
3
0
Cates
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
58.7% (858)
-13.2%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
55.8% (285)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
62.9% (35)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cates is 43.1% vs left-shot opponents (564).
Cates shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Cates
Hertl
Home
46.2% (468)
60.1% (599)
Away
43.9% (449)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Cates
Hertl
P1
46.0%
52.4%
P2
47.5%
63.9%
P3
42.1%
58.5%
OT
18.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.8%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2025 | OT | 01:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |