Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Cates wins 41.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 43.2% vs Hertl 54.3% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 59.3%
Neutral zone
Cates 56.1%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Cates
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Cates
Hertl
Last 10: Cates 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
4
5
Cates
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
4
0
Cates
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
5
Cates
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (2,786)
53.9% (8,303)
-9.8%
Power Play
42.9% (254)
59.2% (1,995)
-16.3%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (373)
46.3% (806)
-11.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Cates shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Cates
Hertl
Home
43.9% (1,708)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
42.2% (1,705)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Cates
Hertl
P1
44.5%
53.6%
P2
43.7%
54.2%
P3
41.2%
55.3%
OT
29.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
41.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2025 | OT | 01:14 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 13:51 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 16:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 17:00 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 19:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 08:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:33 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:24 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 18:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 10:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 02:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2022 | 3 | 02:36 | Offensive | Noah Cates |