Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cates 45.5% vs Trocheck 56.2% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Cates leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Trocheck 61.9%
Defensive zone
Trocheck 75.8%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 62.0%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Cates
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Cates
Trocheck
Last 10: Cates 6-4 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
2
Cates
Trocheck
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Cates
Trocheck
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
4
2
Cates
Trocheck
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cates
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (756)
58.0% (666)
-12.5%
Power Play
42.1% (114)
64.8% (165)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (47)
43.4% (152)
+1.3%
On power play, Trocheck has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Cates is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (350).
Cates shoots left. Trocheck is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Home / Away
Cates
Trocheck
Home
46.2% (468)
55.3% (436)
Away
43.9% (449)
58.1% (547)
By Period
Cates
Trocheck
P1
46.0%
56.4%
P2
47.5%
58.7%
P3
42.1%
55.5%
OT
18.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
44.8%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
45.0%
Trocheck
62.0%▲
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 07:32 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:48 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 00:39 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:50 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 19:53 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 06:59 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 08:25 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 16:08 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:15 | Offensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 05:17 | Defensive | Vincent Trocheck |