Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kapanen wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 47.1% vs Kelly 41.4% (+10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 71.0%
Defensive zone
Kapanen 56.7%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 58.5%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Kapanen
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kapanen
Kelly
Last 5: Kapanen 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
2
1
Kapanen
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (527)
36.5% (159)
+10.0%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
0.0% (1)
+54.8%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
38.5% (13)
+1.0%
On power play, Kapanen has a +54.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kapanen is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (449).
Kapanen shoots right. Kelly is 34.9% vs right-shot opponents (63).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Kelly
Home
47.0% (315)
35.4% (79)
Away
46.2% (292)
37.2% (94)
By Period
Kapanen
Kelly
P1
41.6%
33.8%
P2
50.7%
36.5%
P3
47.6%
39.6%
Final 5 min
44.4%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.6%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
36.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:45 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |