Scouting Report
Oliver Kapanen holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kapanen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kapanen wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Kelly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kapanen 46.8% vs Kelly 41.7% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kapanen 79.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 65.4%
Neutral zone
Kapanen 56.7%
Result
Oliver Kapanen favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Kapanen
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kapanen
Kelly
Last 5: Kapanen 3-2 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kapanen
1
0
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Kapanen
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kapanen
2
1
Kapanen
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kapanen
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (572)
42.0% (758)
+4.3%
Power Play
50.9% (53)
0.0% (3)
+50.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (38)
36.8% (174)
+2.7%
On power play, Kapanen has a +50.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Kapanen is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Kapanen shoots right. Kelly is 39.7% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Kapanen
Kelly
Home
46.3% (348)
42.4% (476)
Away
46.3% (315)
39.2% (459)
By Period
Kapanen
Kelly
P1
41.7%
42.3%
P2
49.6%
44.7%
P3
47.5%
35.6%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.1%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kapanen
32.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 05:45 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:35 | Offensive | Oliver Kapanen |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 17:16 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Neutral | Oliver Kapanen |