Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +17.9% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 37.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 43.3% vs Hertl 57.5% (-17.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.1%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 52.3%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 55.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 57.1%
42.9%
57.1%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Buchnevich
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
40.5% (190)
58.7% (858)
-18.2%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
55.8% (285)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
62.9% (35)
-32.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +32.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 37.6% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
40.7% (118)
60.1% (599)
Away
39.6% (96)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
42.3%
52.4%
P2
37.5%
63.9%
P3
40.3%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
40.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |