Pavel Buchnevich vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +19.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings). Buchnevich wins 33.5% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 36.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-19.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 94.5%
Defensive zone
Buchnevich 93.5%
Neutral zone
Buchnevich 94.4%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 94.3%
94.3%
5.7%
Buchnevich
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Buchnevich
Hertl
Last 10: Buchnevich 2-8 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Buchnevich
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Buchnevich
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
7
Buchnevich
Hertl
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (931)
53.9% (8,303)
-19.4%
Power Play
44.2% (52)
59.2% (1,995)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
24.3% (37)
46.3% (806)
-22.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +22.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Buchnevich is 33.5% vs left-shot opponents (672).
Buchnevich shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Hertl
Home
35.6% (517)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
33.6% (503)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Buchnevich
Hertl
P1
35.2%
53.6%
P2
34.8%
54.2%
P3
33.4%
55.3%
OT
50.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
38.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
34.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2024 | 1 | 06:47 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 11:42 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 15:33 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |