Pavel Buchnevich vs Wyatt Johnston
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Buchnevich wins 44.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Buchnevich 43.3% vs Johnston 48.0% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Buchnevich 62.3%
Defensive zone
Johnston 57.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 50.2%
Result
Pavel Buchnevich favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Buchnevich
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Buchnevich
Johnston
Last 5: Buchnevich 2-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Buchnevich
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Buchnevich
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Buchnevich
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
40.5% (190)
47.3% (666)
-6.8%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
50.7% (69)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
30.0% (10)
51.4% (35)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Buchnevich shoots left. Johnston is 46.4% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Buchnevich
Johnston
Home
40.7% (118)
47.5% (364)
Away
39.6% (96)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Buchnevich
Johnston
P1
42.3%
49.4%
P2
37.5%
46.9%
P3
40.3%
47.1%
OT
50.0%
47.1%
Final 5 min
40.5%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 12:21 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 06:53 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |