Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.8% vs Aho 50.5% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 73.2%
Defensive zone
Zacha 71.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Zacha
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Zacha
Aho
Last 8: Zacha 3-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Zacha
Aho
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
1
Zacha
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zacha
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (700)
50.5% (878)
+2.5%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
53.5% (144)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (74)
44.3% (61)
-5.1%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Zacha shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Zacha
Aho
Home
51.6% (438)
53.8% (571)
Away
52.4% (445)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Zacha
Aho
P1
57.0%
49.0%
P2
48.9%
51.7%
P3
50.5%
50.3%
OT
42.1%
58.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 2 | 06:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 3 | 11:58 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 09:45 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 06:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |