Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.2% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 25-17 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 63.1%
Defensive zone
Zacha 65.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 65.7%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Zacha
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
25
(42 meetings)
17
25
Zacha
Stamkos
Last 10: Zacha 5-5 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
5
8
Zacha
Stamkos
13 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Zacha
Stamkos
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
6
11
Zacha
Stamkos
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,156)
50.5% (9,825)
-1.6%
Power Play
55.7% (813)
55.2% (1,729)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (557)
49.6% (827)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,560).
Zacha shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Zacha
Stamkos
Home
49.7% (3,381)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
48.6% (3,145)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Zacha
Stamkos
P1
49.9%
49.2%
P2
49.2%
52.7%
P3
48.2%
50.9%
OT
53.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
47.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
49.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 13:48 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 27, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 05:23 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:55 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 15:13 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:17 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OT | 00:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 20, 2023 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:53 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 12, 2020 | 3 | 00:30 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 3, 2018 | 1 | 19:48 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |