Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 51.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 79.5%
Defensive zone
Zacha 63.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 63.4%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Zacha
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Zacha
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
0
Zacha
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (700)
47.2% (687)
+5.8%
Power Play
54.1% (109)
45.0% (20)
+9.1%
Penalty Kill
39.2% (74)
33.0% (88)
+6.2%
On power play, Zacha has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Zacha shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Zacha
Gourde
Home
51.6% (438)
44.4% (356)
Away
52.4% (445)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Zacha
Gourde
P1
57.0%
42.2%
P2
48.9%
50.0%
P3
50.5%
44.5%
OT
42.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |