Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Krebs wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Krebs 45.4% vs Aho 50.5% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 63.5%
Defensive zone
Krebs 72.0%
Neutral zone
Krebs 54.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Krebs
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Krebs
Aho
Last 7: Krebs 3-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
3
Krebs
Aho
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Krebs
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Krebs
2
0
Krebs
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Krebs
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (403)
50.5% (878)
-6.1%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
53.5% (144)
-20.2%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
44.3% (61)
+0.7%
On power play, Aho has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Krebs is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (291).
Krebs shoots left. Aho is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Krebs
Aho
Home
46.3% (205)
53.8% (571)
Away
42.4% (224)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Krebs
Aho
P1
47.0%
49.0%
P2
45.4%
51.7%
P3
40.7%
50.3%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.2%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Krebs
48.0%▲
42.0%
44.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 18:07 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 15:03 | Offensive | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:49 | Neutral | Peyton Krebs |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 16:24 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 1 | 17:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |