Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dubois on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Dubois wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dubois 48.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.2%
Defensive zone
Dubois 67.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.3%
45.7%
54.3%
Dubois
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Dubois
Hertl
Last 6: Dubois 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
2
1
Dubois
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Dubois
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dubois
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (259)
58.7% (858)
-13.9%
Power Play
70.6% (34)
55.8% (285)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
62.9% (35)
+12.1%
On power play, Dubois has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Dubois is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (171).
Dubois shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Dubois
Hertl
Home
46.6% (163)
60.1% (599)
Away
50.7% (138)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Dubois
Hertl
P1
44.0%
52.4%
P2
51.5%
63.9%
P3
49.5%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.5%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dubois
40.0%▼
50.0%
48.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 07:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2 | 03:51 | Defensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:38 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |