Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johnson 51.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 89.7%
Defensive zone
Johnson 70.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.1%
Result
Reese Johnson favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Johnson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Johnson
Hertl
Last 7: Johnson 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Johnson
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
3
1
Johnson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Johnson
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johnson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (434)
53.9% (8,303)
-0.4%
Power Play
80.0% (5)
59.2% (1,995)
+20.8%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (81)
46.3% (806)
-5.6%
On power play, Johnson has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Johnson shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Johnson
Hertl
Home
50.8% (252)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
52.6% (268)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Johnson
Hertl
P1
52.1%
53.6%
P2
47.4%
54.2%
P3
56.4%
55.3%
OT
0.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
51.1%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
51.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2023 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 13:35 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 2 | 00:21 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |