Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Greig wins 58.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 51.1% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 90.7%
Defensive zone
Greig 63.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 77.9%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Greig
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Greig
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
0
Greig
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (347)
57.1% (368)
-5.2%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
55.2% (96)
+11.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (87)
50.0% (10)
-5.2%
On power play, Greig has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Greig is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Greig shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
Greig
Stamkos
Home
50.4% (254)
53.9% (230)
Away
52.5% (204)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Greig
Stamkos
P1
45.9%
56.7%
P2
60.1%
54.1%
P3
49.2%
59.2%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.3%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |