Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Greig wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 49.0% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.6%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 50.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 71.8%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Greig
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Greig
Stamkos
Last 9: Greig 6-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Greig
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
6
1
Greig
Stamkos
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,144)
50.5% (9,825)
-1.8%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
55.2% (1,729)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (178)
49.6% (827)
-2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Greig is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (643).
Greig shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
Greig
Stamkos
Home
49.9% (688)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
48.0% (708)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
Greig
Stamkos
P1
46.0%
49.2%
P2
51.8%
52.7%
P3
49.1%
50.9%
OT
28.6%
54.3%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:42 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 2 | 12:33 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 13:37 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 3, 2025 | 1 | 02:28 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 1 | 19:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |