Scouting Report
Ridly Greig holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Greig wins 58.2% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 51.1% vs Thompson 45.2% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 81.6%
Defensive zone
Greig 69.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 64.2%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Greig
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Greig
Thompson
Last 9: Greig 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Greig
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Greig
2
1
Greig
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Greig
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (347)
44.6% (661)
+7.3%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
48.4% (95)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (87)
33.3% (33)
+11.5%
On power play, Greig has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Greig is 58.2% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Greig shoots left. Thompson is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (567).
Home / Away
Greig
Thompson
Home
50.4% (254)
45.7% (411)
Away
52.5% (204)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Greig
Thompson
P1
45.9%
47.7%
P2
60.1%
45.7%
P3
49.2%
40.5%
OT
0.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.3%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
40.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:05 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 16:48 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:22 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 09:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 06:36 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 05:59 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |