Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Greig wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 51.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 77.8%
Defensive zone
Greig 86.1%
Neutral zone
Greig 53.8%
Result
Ridly Greig favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Greig
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Greig
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Greig
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (347)
58.7% (858)
-6.8%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
55.8% (285)
+10.9%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (87)
62.9% (35)
-18.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +18.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Greig shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Greig
Hertl
Home
50.4% (254)
60.1% (599)
Away
52.5% (204)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Greig
Hertl
P1
45.9%
52.4%
P2
60.1%
63.9%
P3
49.2%
58.5%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
51.3%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |