Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Greig on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Greig wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greig 49.0% vs Hertl 54.3% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 90.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 81.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.1%
22.9%
77.1%
Greig
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Greig
Hertl
Last 8: Greig 5-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greig
1
0
Greig
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greig
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greig
3
2
Greig
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greig
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (1,144)
53.9% (8,303)
-5.2%
Power Play
56.8% (74)
59.2% (1,995)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (178)
46.3% (806)
+0.9%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Greig is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Greig shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Greig
Hertl
Home
49.9% (688)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.0% (708)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Greig
Hertl
P1
46.0%
53.6%
P2
51.8%
54.2%
P3
49.1%
55.3%
OT
28.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greig
58.0%▲
52.0%
48.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Ridly Greig |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 05:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Offensive | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:53 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:44 | Neutral | Ridly Greig |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |